Well, it’s been a wait  but at last it’s here, the first of the Spring Cups double, the Caulfield Cup. Now we have to be honest and admit that we have not been as successful at picking Caulfield Cup winners as we have Melbourne Cup winners, even though we had that triumph with Arctic Scent at 33/1 a few years ago.

This year, we have the imports as well as Bart Cummings horse Kens Joy, which the committee has included in the field even though he has not fully qualified. The last time they did this the inclusion was justified as they put in the long shot winner. This time who knows?

Mont Rocher is an import who has earned his place. He has not run for a month but has previously won in smart time over 2800 metres after a 39 day break and 3000 metres after a 27 day break. It may well be that his competition was also racing fresh, but some of the times this horse has run are sensational.

Only four weeks ago he ran second beaten 2.4 lengths over 2000 metres in 119.90 which is close to the Flemington track record here in Australia. Racing over 2400 meters first up in July he ran 2 minutes 26 seconds on a dead track. Here only Might and Power or Tulloch at his peak could have done that. Mont Rocher deserves to be included in the chances.

Fairway was our prediction to beat Sunline last start and he did that in bulldog fashion over 2000 metres. He has won in all conditions on a number of major tracks including Flemington, Rosehill and Randwick so
the fact that he has not raced previously at Caulfield should not hinder is chances here. Not many favourites have won this race but Fairway is a genuine chance to join that elite club.

Fairway has drawn wide but his style of racing is such that he will be able to get across and race on the pace, possibly dictating terms until nearing the straight where he could race away. Yes Fairway is a deserved 3/1 favourite.

Freemason disappointed backers last start when backed in from 12/1 to 9/1 at this track over 2000 metres. He has performed at this track previously and his trainer puts it down to the track being slippery i.e. soft on top and firm underneath. This simply means that the horse is a bit skittery and this could be a major drawback. Still, if he does race comfortably , he does have the ability to take out this race and for that reason we have left him in.

If you’re looking for a real roughie with a chance and the track is rain affected i.e. worse than dead, then Magneto might be the go. Now a 7yo, the horse has six wins from ten starts here at Caulfield and won three times over the Cup distance.

Our four for the Caulfield Cup are

Number 2  Fairway

Number 5 Freemason

Number 4 Mont Rocher

Long Shot (wet track only) 10 Magneto